“Home price drops” is the phrase buyers cannot stop typing into search bars.
Google Trends shows the term hitting its highest point in two years.

AI tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity report the same surge in queries. Social media threads echo the belief that waiting will pay off. Buyers are convinced prices will fall, and that belief has become the biggest shadow over new-home sales.

All eyes have been on the Federal Reserve today. Markets watched for any hint that a September rate cut could arrive.

As expected, the Fed held its rates steady.

According to the Wall Street Journal [gift access]:

Powell said recent data showing steady hiring and economic activity, together with inflation somewhat above the Fed’s 2% goal, suggests a modestly restrictive rate stance is appropriate. “It seems to me and to almost the whole committee that the economy is not performing as though restrictive policy is holding [the economy] back inappropriately,” he said at a news conference."

Homebuilders, though, face a bigger challenge than the Fed's actions. Homebuilders' problem – pretty widely now, and expanding – is buyers who aren't buying. Not what they're selling. Not now. The embedded belief that prices will go down is pushing many would-be buyers into a wait-and-see stance. That is a hard obstacle to overcome with incentives or marketing.

In the absence of political sway, inconsistent data on the slowing of employment and insufficient data on the tariff impacts, will both keep the Fed from cutting in the upcoming meeting," Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality Chief Economist, stated before the Fed decision came to light.

However, with growing divergence of Committee opinions and growing evidence of a slowing economy, the Fed will tilt closer to a rate cut in September," Happ notes, adding notably, "Nevertheless, with home buying remaining weak and demand for newly built homes under growing pressure, along with the need for incentives, it is unclear how much support the housing market will receive as a result. And even though there are policy discussions around the removal of capital gains to boost housing inventory, many markets with already surging availability of homes for sale continue to suffer from a lack of buyers and affordability issues - problems that eliminating capital gains is unlikely to solve.”

Zillow’s latest data shows why waiting may be a losing strategy for buyers. Home values would need to drop by 18% for a median-income family to afford a typical home, assuming current rates. That kind of price collapse would require a deep recession and a jump in unemployment. Zillow expects a slight decline, about 2%, by the end of this year. That will not move the affordability needle.

If buyers are waiting for big drops in mortgage rates or prices to help affordability, they’re in for a rude awakening,” Zillow notes.

This stalemate creates a market that feels like a shadow of itself. Homes sell, but they take more time. Sales need more price concessions. They demand a sharper focus on every customer interaction. The challenge is no longer just creating traffic. It is about converting that traffic.

Cotality’s 2025 From House to Home report drives this point home. It finds that buyers are not frozen because they lack urgency. They are frozen because they lack confidence.

Buyers are normally highly motivated, but they stall when they can’t clearly see what’s ahead. People want to keep moving. They just need to see a path.”

This is where Chris Laskowski, VP of Marketing at New Home Star, sets a clear course. His guidance blends hard data with high-touch human engagement. Builders, he argues, need both precision tools and highly trained sales associates who act like personal financial advisors in today’s anxious market.

Obsess Over Buyers Who Are Still Active

Even in the most challenging market, some buyers are not waiting. Builders who focus on these groups and engage them with the right messages can move the sales needle now.

1. Discretionary buyers. Many older buyers are not sensitive to rates or price fluctuations. They buy what they want, when they want it.
2. Adult children backed by family wealth. Millennials and Gen Z adults often turn to the “bank of mom and dad” to help them buy their first home.
3. Life-event movers. Family formation, job relocations, or divorce compel some buyers to act regardless of market conditions.

Finding and converting these groups takes skill and high-performance competition. Spray-and-pray marketing no longer works. Data precision and personalized engagement are essential. As Laskowski puts it:

Every major conversion page—your community pages, your homepage, your area pages—should be pulled into a single report. You need to know the conversion rate on each page, obsess over the pages that are underperforming, and fix them.”

From 'Only Game in Town' to Real Competition

During 2023 and part of 2024, builders enjoyed a rare advantage. Existing-home inventory was locked up by owners sitting on 3% mortgage rates. Rentals were expensive, with rates surging post-COVID. For a moment, new-home builders were the only game in town.

That moment is over.

• Resale listings are returning, even if slowly.
• Rental prices have flattened or even dropped in some markets.
• Buyers now have more options, and many think waiting will get them a better deal.

This shift means builders cannot count on tailwinds. They need to push harder to sell their current inventory and rethink their product for the new environment.

The Ground-Game Playbook

Chris Laskowski’s approach starts with conversion obsession.

This upcoming quarter, the number one priority we have is all about conversion rates. It’s all conversion rates,” he says. “We still have traffic. We still have people interested. What’s happening now is uncertainty that’s pulling people back.”

To overcome that uncertainty, builders need to know precisely where buyers drop off in their digital journey. They need to fix weak pages, sharpen their value propositions, and meet buyers with the right message at the right stage.

Laskowski stresses the need for segmentation.

You can’t take a one-size-fits-all approach. We bucket every conversion into the top, middle, and bottom of the funnel. If someone wants to download a guide, don’t scare them off by asking for seven fields of personal data.”

AI is another pillar of his strategy.

If you’re not structuring your content for AI search now, you’re already falling behind. Every page should be framed around the questions people are asking. Reviews, ratings, and reputation will become your biggest signals in AI-driven results.”

Builders who start optimizing now can gain a first-mover advantage.

Builders are losing organic search traffic to AI right now—and they don’t even have data on it,” Laskowski says. “There’s no Google Search Console for ChatGPT. The ones who start optimizing early will win.”

Sales Teams as Advisors

Laskowski believes that sales associates must evolve beyond order-taking. They need to act as trusted financial guides, helping buyers cut through fear and confusion. This aligns with Cotality’s findings that confidence — not speed — drives the buyer journey.

Sales teams can’t just be order-takers anymore,” Laskowski notes. “They need to act like financial advisors—guiding buyers through the uncertainty with personalized advice, incentives, and real transparency.”

Builders who invest in training their teams to build trust and offer solutions are far more likely to capture today’s cautious buyers.

Stop Doing What Doesn’t Work

Part of Laskowski’s playbook is knowing what to stop.

Stop posting generic floor plan collages on social media,” he says. “They have zero thumb-stopping power. Stop blasting your entire CRM with one-size-fits-all emails. Segment and personalize, or you’re wasting effort.”

These tactics no longer move buyers. Precision and relevance do.

Push With Agency

The Fed’s decisions on rates matter. But, are they the key to moving homes off the books today? Don't bet on it. Builders who wait for a market shift risk losing ground to those who act.

The task now is twofold:

1. Sell through existing inventory and land positions with data-driven targeting and strong buyer engagement.
2. Pivot product strategy for the long game, designing homes and communities that meet the new affordability reality.

This is a moment for agency. Not passive hope. Not waiting on economic winds. Builders who combine Laskowski’s data precision with the human power of trusted sales guidance will capture the buyers who are ready and willing — the discretionary buyer, the family-backed first-time buyer, and the life-event mover.

The market is no longer the “only game in town.” It is fiercely competitive again. The time to hesitate is through. The time to get "Fed up" with an interest rate regime that's going too slow to make much of a difference has come and gone.

Success – for some, survival – will belong to those who act now, measure everything, and push with precise focus.