TBDCapital

From debt and lending to equity and strategic investment, how housing-as-a-solution drives financial equity expansion and growth.

Bumpier Times As Market Forces Stress-Test Solid Fundamentals

Capital

Bumpier Times As Market Forces Stress-Test Solid Fundamentals

P4 -- a fourth revision to 2021 budget and operational forecasts -- needs to reflect shifts from tailwinds to headwinds before 'actuals' start comping to booming 2020 measures.

Public Builders' Dilemma: How Big A Miss To Guide To For 2021

Capital

Public Builders' Dilemma: How Big A Miss To Guide To For 2021

As 2021 Q4 approaches, public homebuilder face a harrowing prospect: How to level-set to reality on delivery misses without jeopardizing 2022 forecasts or penalizing operators in the field.

BRIEFS

07.01.21

As Wage Vs. Price Wedge Widens, Interest Rates Matter More

The pace of price increases is faster than wage growth in many places, exposing a fault line defined by historically low interest rates to narrow the gap to attainability.

06.23.21

Why Home Partners Of America Suits Blackstone SFR Re-entry

In its $6 billion acquisition of HPA, Blackstone adds a "doing-well-by-doing-good" dimension to a shrewd, opportunistic position in the hot single-family-rental market.

06.22.21

Gravity Yanks LBM Back To Earth, Labor Retakes Spot As No. 1 Risk

As lumber and other commodities begin to obey market laws of gravity, the underlying issue -- people -- clarifies as the root issue to focus on for the present and future.

06.03.21

Talking Housing Bubble? Start Talking Turkey ... And Talking Taper

Global house prices reached unprecedented peaks at historical 12-month rates of growth. Is there a taper-tantrum in oaur near future?

06.02.21

Price Tag For Regulation Costs On New Home Construction: $94K

A 24% slice of the new-home selling price pie goes now to "regulatory burden," the weight of land-use permitting, impact fees, cost-of-time charges, etc. in the pre-construction stages, and the added expense of start-to-completion construction cycle code and regulation.

05.28.21

Bubble Rap: It's Not What's Next That Matters Now; It's Who Can And Can't

Who's right about which prediction is exactly the focus area strategists would do well to dispel from their priority agendas right now. Instead of focusing on a bubble, redouble commitment instead to becoming listeners, learners, understanders of what customers feel, think, fear and do.

The 5th Cycle: Frank Anton On Housing's Law Of Gravity

Capital

The 5th Cycle: Frank Anton On Housing's Law Of Gravity

What-if? The question few housing business stakeholders care to factor into their forecasts right now is what happens when -- not if -- interest rates spike?

Stop Saying 'Labor Shortage;' Focus On Talent Magnetism

Capital

Stop Saying 'Labor Shortage;' Focus On Talent Magnetism

Solving American homebuilding's biggest challenges -- attainability, sustainability, and next generation talent -- may seem impossible. Left with no choice, we'll rally.

PE Firms Bring Buy-Now-Pay-Later Gambit To Land Wargames

Land

PE Firms Bring Buy-Now-Pay-Later Gambit To Land Wargames

"Some of these deals today will be the big distressed deal plays of tomorrow." -- A strategic land pro describes private equity blitz into build-for-rent as "extraordinarily risky."

Throughput Delays Crush Private Homebuilders' Cashflow

Capital

Throughput Delays Crush Private Homebuilders' Cashflow

As constructus interruptus disrupts building cycles, privately capitalized operators hold little leverage for continued access to lines of credit, construction-to-perm loans, and project financing.

Daiwa House Dials In Texas:  $400M For 80% Of Castlerock

Capital

Daiwa House Dials In Texas: $400M For 80% Of Castlerock

Here's the 411 on 2021's largest homebuilding mergers and acquisition deal to date, giving Japan-based Daiwa House the fast-growing strategic puzzle piece its $3.6 billion goal calls for now.

Does Single-Family Build-For-Rent's Surge Harm Entry-Level?

Capital

Does Single-Family Build-For-Rent's Surge Harm Entry-Level?

Institutional investment's push to own single-family rental properties has a sharply different cause, a different effect, and a profoundly different solution than many housing experts detect. Here's Dreamer Scott Cox's view.

Here's A Look At The $338M New Home-Apollo Deal, And What It Means

Capital

Here's A Look At The $338M New Home-Apollo Deal, And What It Means

TBD's exclusive analysis of a homebuilder M&A transaction that bears not just on the future of one of the industry's premium operators, but on what happens next in a business environment shrouded in uncertainty.