Land

Texas Two-Steps: Mapping Out DFW's Newest Paths Of Growth

The DFW growth frontier pushes north as Sherman and Denison wrestle with timing, pricing, and identity. Land costs, lifestyle appeal, and semiconductor billions fuel a slow-burning transformation with long-term upside.

Land

Texas Two-Steps: Mapping Out DFW's Newest Paths Of Growth

The DFW growth frontier pushes north as Sherman and Denison wrestle with timing, pricing, and identity. Land costs, lifestyle appeal, and semiconductor billions fuel a slow-burning transformation with long-term upside.

August 4th, 2025
Texas Two-Steps: Mapping Out DFW's Newest Paths Of Growth
SHARE:
SHARE:

It might still be a little early to crown Sherman the next big boomtown, but you can’t deny there’s a noticeable shift underfoot.

When Texas Instruments and Global Wafers announced plans to invest over $30 billion into advanced silicon fabrication plants here, the talk naturally turned to growth, rapid growth, soaring land prices, and a future shaped by the high-tech industry. Yet, four years in, most of Sherman still looks like the Sherman from decades ago, especially when you check the housing market.

For most production builders who operate out of Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Sherman hasn’t quite caught their eye for volume home building, unless the land costs drop to very low levels. They’re watching a natural progression of growth along the I-75 corridor heading north: from McKinney to Melissa, then Anna, Van Alstyne, Howe, and finally Sherman.

That distance between McKinney, one of the fastest-growing cities in the region, and Sherman is steadily shrinking, signaling Sherman’s future role as part of the expanding Dallas exurban footprint.

In June 2025, Sherman’s median home price was reported at about $297,000, according to Redfin. Over the same timeframe, the DFW metroplex clocked in a median price of $440,000. While Sherman’s prices have jumped roughly 40% since those fabrication plant announcements, many of the homes remain older and less updated. The more expensive homes in DFW and the demand for newer, larger houses are not yet fully reflected here in Sherman.

Sherman, in other words, is in a transitional state, straddling its past and future.

Sherman’s 2024 Housing Study adds more nuance: the city currently has more housing units than households, and builders report slowing sales across several price tiers. This suggests that, for now, supply may be outpacing demand in specific segments, especially at price points beyond what many local buyers can afford. Despite the promising job announcements, the housing market has not yet caught fire.

Looking to the future, thousands of new jobs from the semiconductor plants are poised to boost Sherman’s economy. But the translation from jobs to new housing demand isn’t instantaneous. With only about 20% of the fab plants operational as of mid-2025, the full potential impact on housing remains to be realized.

Just a short drive north of Sherman is Denison, about 11 miles away, and these two cities anchor Grayson County together as the Sherman-Denison Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). This area is home to approximately 150,500 people, a population size that suggests the market is more than just a tertiary outpost.

Denison has emerged as a charming counterbalance to Sherman’s tech-driven economic development, with a revitalized downtown boasting over 200 locally owned businesses—including eateries, breweries, wineries, and entertainment venues—Denison benefits from deliberate redevelopment efforts. The Denison Development Foundation supports this growth with incentive programs like the 15% Matching Incentive grant for dining and entertainment businesses, encouraging a vibrant commercial scene filled with local flavor and community spirit. Most notably, Denison is on course to surpass its peak population from the early 1970s, marking a period of steady, sustainable growth.

Adding another layer to the region’s appeal is the Preston Harbor development on Lake Texoma, right on Denison’s doorstep. Valued at $6 billion, this master-planned community expects to deliver roughly 7,500 luxury homes, resort hotels—including a Margaritaville—retail spaces, restaurants, a 1,000-slip marina, and extensive recreational amenities. This lakeside lifestyle could attract buyers otherwise drawn to Dallas-area suburbs, but looking for a more relaxed, nature-infused community with upscale amenities.

That said, Sherman faces a balancing act. Land prices have climbed significantly due to demand from the growing semiconductor sector and limited developable land, pushing values that require developers to aim for homes in the $450,000 to $500,000 range to make the numbers work. Yet, the existing local market still gravitates toward more moderately priced homes, leaving a disconnect between land costs and achievable selling prices. This gap complicates new home development but is part of a timing issue that may resolve as employment and incomes rise.

In sum, Sherman sits directly in the path of continued growth extending north from the DFW metro area. While large-scale transformation won’t happen overnight, expect 18 to 24 months for new subdivisions to break ground and even longer to mature, the momentum is unquestionably building.

With the first of the semiconductor plants now operational, the economic foundation is solidifying. For buyers and developers alike, Sherman-Denison offers a unique blend of market opportunity, lifestyle options, and regional connectivity.

Mark my words: this region is attracting a new generation of residents who value authenticity, community, and recreational amenities, especially those drawn to lake living and genuine Texas small-town character fused with economic promise. The tale of these two cities is just beginning, and the next chapter looks bright.

By the time all of the fabrication plants are operational, over 5,000 new jobs will have been created with a median income of over $100K.

This is what everyone is waiting for, because the effect will be impossible not to notice: $500 million a year in new income, pumping into the MSA.

It’s a buy.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Scott Finfer

Scott Finfer

Principle, Republic Standard Land Fund

With over 25 years of experience in the real estate industry, Scott has acquired and developed over 12,000 single family residential lots across various markets and regions.

MORE IN Land

Avoiding the Entitlement Trap: Smarter Development Fee Strategies

Early-stage due diligence on fees, taxes, and districts is helping CFOs avoid costly surprises and protect margins in a high-cost, high-rate housing market.


How Homebuilders Gain Ground Control With Digital Land Tools

Land banking is complex and costly. A new digital approach shows how builders can cut errors, speed deals, and stay competitive.


We Engineered This Housing Crisis — It Didn’t Just Happen

Metro housing policy has become a self-defeating maze. The Builder's Daily contributor Scott Cox helps us with data, wisdom, and courage to map the math, myths, and real path forward.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Scott Finfer

Scott Finfer

Principle, Republic Standard Land Fund

With over 25 years of experience in the real estate industry, Scott has acquired and developed over 12,000 single family residential lots across various markets and regions.

MORE IN Land

Avoiding the Entitlement Trap: Smarter Development Fee Strategies

Early-stage due diligence on fees, taxes, and districts is helping CFOs avoid costly surprises and protect margins in a high-cost, high-rate housing market.


How Homebuilders Gain Ground Control With Digital Land Tools

Land banking is complex and costly. A new digital approach shows how builders can cut errors, speed deals, and stay competitive.


We Engineered This Housing Crisis — It Didn’t Just Happen

Metro housing policy has become a self-defeating maze. The Builder's Daily contributor Scott Cox helps us with data, wisdom, and courage to map the math, myths, and real path forward.