The margin for error on land decisions is shrinking.

Every major U.S. homebuilder right now is juggling multiple realities: sluggish purchase activity, spotty, iffy, and choppy absorption rates, unpredictable lot pipelines, renewed material price pressures, and a capital environment where mistakes in land buys can quickly crater margins.

So why, in 2025, are so many builders still relying on spreadsheets, rumor networks, and stale public records to underpin their land strategy?

The better question might be this:

What would it look like to lead with land data that sees ahead, not behind?

That’s the question Acres.com founder and CEO Carter Malloy is betting his company on. And whether or not a builder buys into Acres’ particular solution, the broader premise — that builders need real-time, portfolio-wide visibility into land positioning and competitive activity — is fast becoming non-negotiable.

We’re not here to show what’s happening,” Malloy said in a recent TBD interview. “We’re here to show what’s going to happen.”

That distinction, if it holds, could separate builders who protect margin and pace in 2026 from those left holding overbought lots in crowded corridors.

The Fog Around the Front End

Market visibility today is murky. Even as mortgage rates edge down, purchase applications slipped 3% in August, according to NAHB. Builders are still absorbing 3.4% year-over-year increases in material costs, and 64% report lot shortages, especially for desirable “A” locations.

At the same time, the entire land acquisition process—especially for production builders—is being re-engineered toward lighter capital footprints and faster turns. In theory, that’s smart. In practice, it increases exposure to insufficient data, lagging signals, and local opacity.

Land deals are falling apart more often. A recent NAHB case study showed one builder underwriting a parcel at $475,000 per unit, only to watch a nearby competitor launch a near-identical product for $50,000 less. The deal became unworkable.

Their fatal mistake? No visibility into what competitors were buying nearby.

We’re constantly surprised,” Malloy noted, “at how little internal transparency even the biggest builders have into their own portfolios—let alone competitor activity.”

A Use Case, Not a Sales Pitch

Malloy’s company launched The Acres Home Builder Index in August. Its goal is clear: make competitive land activity visible—before it shows up in permits, starts, or broker chatter.

The Index identifies builder land transactions in near-real time, often through entity unmasking, and displays them across a layered, national mapping interface. It doesn’t tell builders what to do. It simply shows them:

• Who bought what, where, and when.
• What zoning, utilities, and infrastructure look like at the parcel level.
• Whether a market is heating up—or already oversaturated.

In one internal use case, Acres surfaced a map of Sarasota, FL—a hot zone already teetering on excess inventory. The map revealed a mosaic of builder acquisitions, many by holding entities that local competitors didn’t know about.

Even in areas where everyone thinks they know what’s going on,” Malloy said, “the big picture is often missing.”

But beyond the predictive intel, the platform also supports internal roll-up across divisions—allowing senior executives to see their full land position, including what's already owned and what’s in motion.

In a capital-constrained era, that might matter just as much.

A Broader Wake-Up Call for Operational Leaders

It’s not just that builders need better intel. It’s that their current systems can’t scale to match the stakes.

Land is the single largest line item on any builder’s balance sheet. Yet internal tools used to manage that land are often a patchwork of Excel, PDFs, cloud folders, and legacy GIS systems—none of which talk to each other.

What that means is that even high-level strategy can be disconnected from on-the-ground acquisition decisions. And when submarkets shift quickly—as they are now—there’s no way to course-correct in time.

Malloy notes that even third-party capital partners, including lenders and land banks, are flying blind.

Without a centralized view, you can’t spot risk. You can’t see where you’re overexposed. And you can’t make smart calls on how to pivot.”

Builders who’ve spent the past two years moving to asset-light models—outsourcing more development risk and acquiring finished lots closer to vertical start—may now need to double back and reinvest in the “intel stack” that governs those strategies.

No Excuse for Blind Spots

To be clear, Acres.com is not the only game in town—and Malloy knows it. What sets his team apart, he argues, is singular focus and operational discipline.

We’re not a proptech generalist. We’re not relying on hype. We’re not selling dreams. We’re building a platform that helps land people make real decisions faster.”

With $80 million in capital raised, 65 full-time employees, and SOC 2 Type 2 compliance in place, Malloy is positioning Acres less as a startup and more as a mission-driven utility—akin to what CoStar became in commercial.

That kind of infrastructure matters in a field where trust, speed, and clean data are not just nice-to-haves, but competitive requirements.

We’re not talking about counting screws,” Malloy added. “We’re talking about taking real cost out of every home through better land placement. Points, not pennies.”

What This Means for Strategic Leaders

At The Builder’s Daily, we often hear from division presidents, land acquisition heads, and C-suite leaders who know they need to invest in their land intelligence—but feel constrained by old systems, limited staff, or internal inertia.

This is where the Acres story becomes instructive—not as an ad, but as a case study.

If Malloy is right, and visibility into future builder moves is possible, then builders who don’t invest in those capabilities are choosing to compete with less.

And in a housing market where:

• Absorption rates vary wildly by ZIP code,
• Local officials block supply based on rumor or outdated plans,
• And inflation keeps sneaking into material and labor inputs—

Builders can’t afford to misplace a quarter-acre, much less a $25 million master plan.