New home markets give and new home markets take away. This one – right now – is giving very few homebuilders a break.

A few consider that turbulence and drag one of this cycle's biggest opportunities.

Single-family permits have been sliding for six straight months. Buyer mobility is at historic lows. Affordability has hardened into a ceiling – housing, in too many places, is a luxury good.

For privately capitalized homebuilders, traditional lenders are pulling back just when land and development opportunities begin to surface.

It’s a hard combination:

• Slower sales and thinner margins
• Higher equity requirements for AD&C financing
• Longer and more uncertain project approvals
• Competitors are willing to price their homes to market faster than you do

It’s a tough combination: the math doesn’t pencil as easily, and the psychology of both buyers and sellers is fragile. Add to that a business climate where interest rates, insurance costs, and construction inputs are volatile, and the path forward for leaders is rarely a straight line.

Where Builders Find Their Edge

In times like this, the builders who move ahead are the ones who can operate with full engagement, total accountability, and a unified effort—from leadership to front lines—executing processes that are digitally integrated into a single source of truth.

Why? In this climate, the knack for adapting together is worth as much as land position or access to capital. Every missed communication, every unaligned decision, every duplicated effort eats into margin, slows velocity, and creates friction at the worst possible moment.

The New Table Stakes

Deals are harder to find and harder to close. Capital partners demand not just pro formas but proof of execution discipline. Trade partners choose to work with the builders who can keep schedules, pay promptly, and resolve issues without drama.

This is where 100% engagement and accountability change the game:

• Everyone knows the plan, and their role in it.
• Decisions are tracked and transparent.
• Data lives in one place—accessible, accurate, and current—so action is based on facts, not guesswork.

Builders who commit to this level of operational unity can act faster on opportunity, respond better to disruption, and protect the confidence of every stakeholder in the chain.

Digital as a Force Multiplier

The shift to a digital single source of truth isn’t a tech trend — it’s here; it's now; it's do it, or die. When design, estimating, purchasing, scheduling, and warranty all speak the same language in the same system, execution improves. Accountability becomes automatic because every handoff and every change has a clear record.

And when teams are engaged in that system — not bypassing it — leaders gain a real-time picture of where the business stands, where risk is building, and where opportunity lies. That’s the intelligence advantage in a market where the margin for error is razor-thin.

This is the reality heading into late 2025 — not a temporary pause, but a drawn-out grind that could stretch deep into 2026.

And it’s precisely why we’ve designed the Focus On Excellence leaders summit and workshop (Oct. 27–29, Four Seasons Denver) as a working forum to help homebuilding leaders plan for 2026–2027 (and beyond) with eyes wide open.

Register here now.

The New Private Builder Dilemma

Scott Cox frames it clearly: you can price to margin or you can price to velocity — but the market will decide either way.

Public builders have broadly adopted velocity as their pricing compass. They keep homes moving at market-clearing prices, absorbing lower gross margins in exchange for lower SG&A, faster cash turns, and maintained lender confidence.

Private builders face the same market signals but with tighter financing and higher per-unit period costs. Holding price on unsold inventory may protect your pro forma on paper, but in practice, it ties up cash, raises carrying costs, risks subcontractor attrition, and can sap internal morale.

The builders who keep moving — who meet the market, clear product, and recycle capital — may sacrifice near-term profitability, but they preserve optionality. And optionality is what will matter most when demand starts to recover in uneven, early pockets.

A Market That Rewards Activity

Wolfe Research’s July private builder survey tells the story:

• New orders up 3.2% month-over-month in what’s typically a down month
• Community counts up 17% year-over-year
• Margins down for 80% of respondents

Those gains didn’t come from sudden market strength. They came from tactical pricing adjustments, targeted incentives, and operational agility.

That’s the crux: activity itself becomes a competitive advantage. Even if volume is modest, staying in front of (and listening to) buyers, keeping trades engaged, and securing new lots at today’s terms builds the foundation for a faster rebound.

Financing Has Changed

Before the GFC, private builders could run light on land, finance with high leverage, and count on rolling takedowns. Today:

• Banks offer lower loan-to-value ratios and stricter covenants
• Alternative capital is costlier but often the only option
• Terms can include shorter maturities and more oversight

That makes consistent absorption and cash flow — even at reduced margins — more critical. Lenders, whether bank or private, back operators they believe will keep projects moving and debt serviced.

The Strategic Window

There’s a narrow window right now to do four things that will matter more than squeezing out an extra point or two of gross margin in 2025:

1. Secure Land at the Right Basis
   Motivated sellers, slower competition, and more flexible deal structures make this an opportunistic time for disciplined acquisitions.
2. Lock in Trade and Supplier Relationships
   Keeping crews working, even at modest volumes, positions you for better terms and priority when the start-up ramps up again.
3. Refine Processes and Systems
   Shortening build cycles, reducing variance, and tightening start-to-close alignment are easier to test and implement before volumes spike.
4. Stay Visible in the Market
   Active communities and consistent messaging build buyer confidence and brand presence — assets you can’t turn on overnight when the time comes.

Why Denver, Why Now

The Focus On Excellence summit is built for precisely this moment. The program is not theory, trend-spotting, or buzzwords. It’s about operational, strategic, and financial decisions you can act on the Monday after you get home.

We’ll start with the Presidents’ Power Panel — five leaders who are running profitable operations in today’s conditions while positioning their companies for the 2030 market. They’ll talk openly about:

• How they decide when to adjust pricing and incentives
• Where they’re finding land and structuring deals
• How they’re managing capital partners’ expectations
• What operational changes they’re making now that will stick

From there, the workshop format takes over. You’ll work with peers to:

• Identify three critical challenges and three big opportunities specific to your business
• Stress-test your 2026–2027 plan against four market scenarios — from strong growth to stagflationary stall
• Map your organization’s structure, process, people, culture, and partnerships for resilience and speed

No Crystal Balls, Just Better Navigation

Nobody in the room will claim to know when interest rates will fall or when buyers will return in force. What you will get is a sharper framework for making decisions when the market doesn’t cooperate:

• Knowing your stall speed and avoiding it
• Understanding the trade-offs between price, pace, and position
• Recognizing when to spend, when to cut, and when to invest for the upturn

This isn’t about predicting the turn. It’s about ensuring you’re still moving — and moving in the right direction — when it happens.

A Call for Leadership

The policy headwinds Scott Cox outlines aren’t going away. Land use restrictions, infrastructure funding gaps, and rising regulatory costs will keep pressure on supply. That’s a structural backdrop you can’t change overnight.

What you can control is how you operate inside it:

• How you price and position product in your markets
• How you deploy and preserve capital
• How you prepare your team and partners for the next phase of the cycle

Leadership in this phase isn’t about waiting for better conditions. It’s about making the tough calls now that will make better conditions matter when they arrive.

Denver in October

Two-and-a-half days. A room full of operators facing the same pressures. Practical tools, candid conversations, and a plan you can take home and execute.

If you’ve been meaning to step back from the daily firefight and think clearly about how to navigate the next 18–24 months, this is your window. The cost of being there is real. So is the price of not being ready.

The leaders who emerge from this cycle stronger will have one thing in common: they didn’t stop moving.

Register here now.