The easiest way to try to discount the view I am about to share is to claim that you have seen this before.

Or you can ask if I am following my own advice.

To the “we-have-seen-it-crowd,” 2008 and 2020 were very different in cause and in outcome. Yet the big guys behaved the same in both situations. And in doing so in 2020, they paid a price. A price that some of them are still fighting. Their lot supply is burning, and the future lot supply is not growing.

The reaction to tariffs is the same as the 2008 housing collapse and the 2020 Covid outbreak.

As to the question of whether I’m heeding my own advice: I am papering two deals as we speak for over 900 acres in DFW.

It is not that I am an eternal bull. I am just seeing the opportunity for smart money to move into new markets, and I intend to provide the landing zones to bring them in. The average new-home community is about 300 homes. There are 3,700 people a week moving to Dallas right now. That is 12 communities a week worth of in-migrators moving here.

So, forgive me if I am not worried that the spring sales season has not hit yet. There is fear and uncertainty in the public homebuilder bunkers. It is the equivalent of when a huge army retreats very quickly. Just by picking up what they left behind, fortunes are made.

Tariffs spark a reset for U.S. housing supply chains – is it time for big privates to expand their land positions and aggressively take ground?

On April 2, President Trump made a move that would send ripples through the housing market and beyond: sweeping tariffs, imposing a 10% baseline on all imports, plus additional country-by-country penalties. While headlines mostly focused on exemptions for Canada and Mexico, the real story is far larger.

These tariffs represent the beginning of a reset to rebuild America's domestic supply chain. It should be noted that the supply chains for building materials stand to benefit even more than other supply chains, particularly for the critical building materials needed for home construction.

In the immediate aftermath, lumber prices dropped $50 in a single day. The tariff war triggered a rush to Treasuries and, unexpectedly, drove interest rates lower — a hidden benefit for housing affordability that hasn’t gotten enough attention. This wasn’t just about tariffs; it was a realignment of the supply chain that will have lasting impacts on U.S. housing.

The Reset: Rebuilding U.S. Supply Chains

For decades, America’s trade framework leaned heavily on international imports, particularly post-World War II. But this new tariff policy signals a shift. The U.S. is finally moving away from a reliance on foreign imports and toward a more resilient, domestic-focused supply chain. That’s a game-changer for homebuilders who have long been dependent on foreign-sourced materials. The tariffs are part of a broader push to bolster local industries and reduce vulnerability to external supply shocks.

Though there will undoubtedly be rising costs for some materials like steel, aluminum, and appliances, estimates indicate that the overall impact on building material costs could be manageable — around a 7-10 % increase. While any increase is not welcomed, this increase in pricing is the necessary complement to securing supply chains by shifting production from overseas to domestic. The ultimate outcome of this rise in costs will be a more competitive domestic manufacturing base that’s just beginning to take shape behind the scenes.

Short-term turmoil for long-term lowered cost and control of the chain.

Housing Demand Still Strong Despite Volatility

Despite the turbulence surrounding trade wars and market fluctuations, housing demand continues to eclipse supply — one of the fundamental drivers behind the industry’s resilience. While some may view the current volatility as a reason to retreat, the reality is that demand still far outpaces the available supply of homes. That’s a major positive for anyone looking to enter the housing market, especially as the reset in supply chains begins to take hold.

Builders, for their part, have been under pressure for some time. To maintain sales in a slower market, many homebuilders have been offering heavy incentives, subsidizing buyers with sweet deals to help them shoulder the costs of rising prices.

However, those incentives are now showing signs of winding down. The market is starting to return to a more natural state. As pricing pressure eases, homebuilders are poised to let the “real” market dynamics take over. Demand is still strong, and the foundation for healthy growth is in place.

Lower Interest Rates: The unexpected tailwind

Here’s the surprise twist: while tariffs typically might lead to higher prices, the market has reacted by driving interest rates lower. Why? The uncertainty created by the tariffs has sparked a rush into Treasuries, pushing down long-term rates across the board. This drop in rates provides a hidden benefit for housing affordability, creating breathing room for homebuyers and builders alike. Mortgage rates have dipped slightly since the tariffs were announced.

Now, with rates sliding lower, the pressure of increasing rates on homebuyers and builders has eased slightly, allowing more room to maneuver on both ends. Homebuilders now have a better chance of managing costs and maintaining margins despite the turbulence.

The uncertainty caused by the tariffs, ironically, is providing an opportunity for more affordable housing at a critical time when many are worried about rising prices. The Fed has paused rate cuts in the recent past, but financial markets are anticipating at least three cuts by the end of this year.

Relief is on the way. The markets have spoken and priced this in.

Opportunity: The Market Awaits Those Ready To Act

As the housing market adjusts to these shifts, there are emerging opportunities—especially for companies willing to take bold, contrarian stances. Right on cue, many national builders are already panicking, pulling deals, freezing land positions, and retreating to the sidelines without fully considering where the real opportunity lies. It’s almost predictable: whenever uncertainty strikes, companies panic and fail to seize the moment.

The fundamentals of the housing market are still intact. Demand still far exceeds supply, and rates are dropping, making now the perfect time to take bold action. The risk isn’t in moving forward—it’s in waiting too long while everyone else hides under their desks.

History rewards those who can act decisively during times of disruption, and this moment in the housing market is no exception. As the big players hesitate, there’s a wide-open window for your company to gain ground—if you can move fast enough.

I am not persuaded by the old argument that real estate is a safe haven. Higher costs does mean lower profits and simply supply and demand is irrelevant. This is a good time to gain positions at a fair price that are simply not available in the frothy times. The big players are sidelined and when they jump back in the prices are likely to go up not down. I witnessed this first hand in 2008 and 2020. Big public dumps huge land play in 2020, fast forward twelve months later and the dumped community is the number one volume neighborhood in DFW doing almost 1,000 units a year from one community, but not for the big that flinched.

The Best Land Positions Are Not Replaceable

Why now is the perfect time to expand your land positions and make big moves in real estate?

1. The door is open.

DFW is the top market for new homes in the US. Trying to buy land here has historically been challenging. Lennar and D.R. Horton could and would tie up land as soon as it hit the market. Or even before. The developers had “their” builders and no room for new players. Add to that the advantage an established home builder doing 2,000 homes a year has in overheads versus a new entrant doing 100 hundred homes and it was fair to say it is a tough neighborhood. Today, we see deals being dropped, earnest money forfeited and the giants are no longer buying every deal. There is a list of big publics in DFW that are being out-run by the efficient privates, big time. You may be a top 10 national builder, but if you are not at scale in DFW you may be a top 40 builder here.

The door is open, do you want to enter?

2. Inflation Doesn’t Scare You — Real Estate Is Your Shield

Land is the asset, homebuilding is the coupon to cash in the asset. While inflation continues to hover as an ever-present threat, real estate remains a powerful hedge. As the price of goods increases, property values tend to rise. Your company knows that even in times of economic uncertainty, real estate is a reliable long-term investment that will appreciate over time. Location, Location, Location. Hello DFW.

The public companies are panicking, watching their stock prices shrink. And with their market caps declining, they are going to be strapped for capital and unable to be aggressive. This is the perfect time for a private company with cash to be making moves and locking in land and properties that will grow in value. This may be the "perfect time" to get in — investing in prime assets that will provide stability and long-term growth.

3. Tech Hubs and Migration Are Redefining the Housing Landscape

Cities like Dallas and Phoenix, and areas like South Florida are no longer just places to visit — they are thriving, tech-driven hubs attracting a new wave of workers and businesses. Remote work, coupled with an influx of young professionals, has led to a massive migration of people to these areas. It’s a trend that’s not only sustainable but expected to accelerate.

Public companies are nervous about the volatility in these markets, wondering whether this trend is just a passing phase. Demand in these cities is real and long-term, not just a fleeting trend. Positioning your company now to capitalize on this migration wave is only possible while the big boys are sidelined. It an opportunity to snap up properties before the markets return to equilibrium.

4. Financing is available — if you know how to leverage it.

Interest rates may be up, but financing is still available, and private companies are in an excellent position to leverage it. From commercial loans to private equity, there are a wealth of options for those who know how to play the game. While the public companies sit on their hands, hesitant to make any moves, aggressive companies can be securing those undervalued properties and locking in long-term financing that will make a major difference as the market adjusts.

Speed Is Your Competitive Advantage

Unlike the lumbering giants, move fast. Make quick, strategic decisions — whether it's purchasing land for development or grabbing finished lots in high-demand markets. Public companies, paralyzed by stock market fluctuations and higher rates, are too slow to capitalize on the opportunity. Seize the moment and act aggressively while the competition hesitates.

The Moment Is Yours

While the public companies hesitate, worrying about the impact of tariffs, rising costs, and market volatility, the contrarians are already making moves.

The fundamentals haven’t changed: housing demand is strong, rates are improving, and domestic manufacturing is gearing up to support U.S. builders.
This is your chance to expand your land positions, secure valuable assets, and position your company for long-term growth. The window is open, and the competition is too scared to act. But you?

It’s not just about the sales made today. Good land assets will carry you forward.

Now is the time.