Why Smart Homebuilders Bet On Texas Single-Family Futures

Scott Finfer -

If Davy Crockett were alive today, he'd be developing in Texas.

Lately, I’ve been sharing why I believe in Texas, not just the land and lifestyle, but also the economics.

And I get it, not everyone agrees. But what’s surprising is how fast a thoughtful conversation can turn hostile. Look, I’m not waving a flag just for show. I talk about Texas because I see real opportunity here — jobs, business growth, land use, affordability. That’s not about hype, that’s about facts.

Does that mean Texas is perfect? Of course not. But from an economic standpoint, it offers the freedom and momentum that a lot of places are struggling to find. If that challenges your views, let’s talk about it. I’m open to honest discussion. Just bring respect, not resentment. Dialogue should build understanding, not walls.

As the national housing market grapples with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, Texas stands out as a bright spot for those with a long-term view and a steady hand. While headlines focus on canceled deals and skittish buyers, a closer look reveals something else: the Lone Star State is quietly setting the stage for its next housing surge.

A Cooldown with Opportunity

Redfin reports that more than 52,000 pending home sales fell through in March 2025. That’s nearly 13.4% of transactions, among the highest cancellation rates since 2017. Some are quick to cry “collapse,” but seasoned investors recognize what’s really happening: the market is sobering up, not falling apart.

Texas, in particular, isn’t in trouble; it’s in transition.

Population Growth, Job Creation, and Affordability

Texas continues to dominate the demographic trends that matter most to housing investors:

  • Strong Population Growth: Over 1.5% annually, thanks to domestic migration.
  • Robust Job Creation: Especially in energy, tech, and logistics hubs like Dallas, Houston, and Austin.
  • Relative Affordability: Even after recent price increases, the median Texas home remains significantly cheaper than its coastal counterparts.

This trifecta is exactly why institutional capital, major homebuilders, and long-range developers are doubling down on Texas.

Who’s Bullish and Why

1. Institutional Investors Are Betting on Build-to-Rent

Wan Bridge/Centurion American, Invitation Homes, and AMH continue expanding in Texas, targeting build-to-rent (BTR) communities that appeal to renters priced out of ownership.

High rates may be freezing some buyers, but they fuel long-term rental demand. And BTR offers scale, operational efficiency, and cash flow in markets where single-family demand isn’t going away.

2. Homebuilders Are Staying the Course

Big players like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and LGI Homes are actively developing in Texas suburbs, particularly around DFW, San Antonio, and Houston. They're focusing on affordability, offering concessions and rate buydowns instead of cutting prices, keeping volume moving and maintaining margins.

Builders know that Texas remains the most development-friendly large state, and that the long-term demand picture justifies continued activity.

3. Land Developers Are Thinking Long-Term

Master-planned developers like Hillwood are powering ahead with projects like:

  • Ramble (Celina)
  • Treeline  (Justin)
  • Legacy (League City)

Their bets are based not on monthly interest rate noise, but on infrastructure expansion, school growth, and 10-year population trends.

4. Analysts and Economists Agree

Zonda, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and The Builder's Daily all rank Texas metros among the top U.S. markets for long-term housing ROI. With local economies becoming more diversified and population gains continuing, few states offer better fundamentals.

What’s Fueling the Optimism?

While some markets are seeing a rise in inventory and cancellations, this creates an opportunity for buyers and investors:

  • Sellers are offering concessions at record rates (nearly 48% in Texas).
  • More inventory is available, giving buyers negotiating power not seen in years.
  • Land prices have softened in some submarkets, providing better entry points for long-term plays. Speculators are being forced to deal with reality and need a way out. It’s a correction, not a crisis.

The Risks (and Why They’re Manageable)

There are risks: continued rate volatility, recession concerns, and policy uncertainty, particularly around trade and immigration.

In 2024, Texas saw a population increase of around 174,261 residents due to net migration, primarily from domestic sources. This means more people moved into Texas from other states than moved out. DFW currently has over 3,000 people moving into town a week. Texas offers unique advantages

  • A business-friendly environment that supports real estate development.
  • Fast entitlement processes in many metros.
  • Ongoing infrastructure investment (think highways, utilities, and logistics hubs).

For investors who can look beyond the next six months, Texas represents one of the most resilient and promising bets in U.S. residential real estate. It’s a question of two pedals, discipline, and motivation. People are motivated when everything and anything that hits the market sells and goes up in price. Those days are over for now. You'd better be disciplined if you want to thrive. Do not get distracted. The past few years were a black swan. Go back to the basics, it works. People need good homes with good schools.

The Bottom Line

The current slowdown in Texas is not a red flag; it’s a green light for strategic investors. Texas offers a compelling mix of value, growth, and long-term stability, from build-to-rent and land banking to discounted builder inventory and suburban single-family rentals.

In short, the smart money isn’t running from Texas real estate; it’s getting in while others hesitate. Welcome to New Home Co. and Scott Felder homes, expanding in Texas while others scratch their heads in fear.

Buyers Hit the Brakes in March — That Might Just Be the Best Thing That Happened to Housing All Year

It turns out tens of thousands of Americans did something sensible in March: they changed their minds. According to Redfin, around 52,000 pending home sales didn’t finish. And rather than cause for alarm, this may be the long-overdue coffee break the housing market needed.

Why This Isn’t a Crisis—It’s a Reset

Sure, some headlines would have you believe we’re on the brink of a housing apocalypse. But let’s not panic just because buyers are finally taking a breather and thinking twice before signing on the dotted line. That’s not uncertainty, it’s wisdom. Especially when buying a home now costs roughly the same as a small moon base.

And hey, after the sticker shock of the last few years, who could blame them?

Trump Promised Cheaper Housing—The Market's Now Trying to Help Him Out

President Trump vowed to make housing more affordable, and in a roundabout, “economics-is-weird” kind of way, buyers hitting pause might help. By backing off a bit, they’re cooling the overheated stove we’ve all been cooking on since 2020. Think of it like turning down the burner before the pot boils over.

And while the usual suspects warn that Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdowns might drive up the cost of living, the upside is that they’re already prompting people to be smarter with their money. (Translation: fewer “oops” mortgages.)

From “Bidding Wars” to “Let’s Talk Discounts”

Back in March, 13.4% of sales fell through. That’s the third-highest March on record—but before you reach for the smelling salts, remember that in 2020, 16.4% fizzled and the world didn’t end. What we’re seeing is a return to sanity, not collapse.

Sellers Are Finally Playing Nice

Here’s the fun part: concessions are making a major comeback. Nearly half of sellers offered some kind of sweetener in Q1, whether it’s covering closing costs, throwing in mortgage buydowns, or, in at least one case, paying seven months of HOA fees. That’s not just kindness; it’s competition.

It’s like Black Friday, only for houses instead of TVs. This will not last; those deals are gone as soon as the reset is complete.

A Cooldown Means a Smarter Market

Redfin’s top economist, Chen Zhao, notes that recession fears keep buyers cautious— but that’s not all bad. A bit less demand could mean more stable prices and possibly a break in mortgage rates.

So, while some folks are pressing pause on home and car purchases, that’s not fear. That’s strategy, especially for those old hands who know that a little patience now can mean much savings later.  

Scottism Du Jour

I talk about Texas with so much conviction because it’s actually doing something about a real problem: the U.S. is short anywhere from 3 to 6 million homes. That’s not a debate — that’s a fact and a housing crisis. And while some places tie themselves in bureaucratic knots over zoning and density, Texas has leaned into growth. With its open land, business-friendly environment, and willingness to build, it’s one of the few states trying to meet demand instead of just managing scarcity. Is it perfect? No. But at least it’s moving forward, not backward. That’s the kind of energy I believe in—and that’s why I speak up about it.

This market’s not broken—it’s sobering up after a long, wild party. And for those who’ve seen a few housing cycles before, you know what that means: opportunity.

It’s not 2008. It’s not 2020. It’s 2025. It is a good sign that we are resetting and accepting the financial reality we have in front of us. When someone predominantly dwells on past experiences or memories, it can be described as "living in the past". This phrase implies a state of being overly focused on past events, relationships, or circumstances, potentially neglecting or hindering the present moment. Sound familiar in housing talk recently?

Homebuilding was one step away from hindering and neglecting our opportunities by wishing for the past and looking backward. Now the market is resetting, and people are forced to deal with the now. We are going forward, keep looking at where you want to go. Texas has a real foundation, a need for homes, and growth. It is open and welcoming. All are welcome.

In his farewell speech to the US House of Representatives, Congressman Davy Crockett said it best: “You may all go to hell and I will go to Texas.”